Making Sense of AI Markets

Approve every transaction → Grant authority in advance. A person typically approves a payment when it happens. Now, approval is moving from each transaction to predefined rules governing what the agent can do. AP2 uses mandates to record what a user has authorized an agent to do, while American Express ACE includes Intent Intelligence and Payment Credentials designed to carry purchase intent into the payment flow.

Human initiates the payment → Agent completes the payment workflow. Business payments usually require a person or fixed workflow to collect billing details, choose the payment method, initiate the transaction, and reconcile the result. Agents can increasingly carry that sequence through themselves. Melio's agent-powered B2B payment network shows this in practice: agents retrieve billing information, execute the supplier's preferred payment method, and return structured remittance data.

Verify the user → Verify the user, agent, and authority between them. Identity checks were built to prove the person is legitimate. Once software can transact for that person, the trust chain has to extend to the agent and its authority to act. Prove's Verified Agent links verified identity, intent, payment credentials, and consent, while Experian's Agent Trust establishes a verifiable human-to-agent relationship.

Full briefing: (3 more defining market signals in this space)

Stripe: Payment distribution + Authorization and execution. Stripe sits at the handoff between defining what the agent can do and turning that authority into a payment. Its Shared Payment Tokens scope what an agent can purchase, while the Agentic Commerce Suite extends into agent wallets and transaction execution.

Crossmint: Agent wallets + Credential infrastructure and settlement. Crossmint is expanding outward from the agent account into the infrastructure surrounding credential issuance and settlement. Its Wallet infrastructure gives agents accounts from which to transact, while stablecoin orchestration and tokenization extend toward authorization and money movement.

Full briefing: (3 more examples of bundling and unbundling moves, backed by real-world examples)

Rail ownership. Visa and Mastercard already control the payment rails that new entrants depend on. Their advantage predates the agentic payment market.

Regulatory licensing. Crossmint's CASP licensing across all 27 EU member states under MiCA takes substantial time and cost to replicate.

Network access. Rain holds Principal Membership with both Visa and Mastercard, giving it direct network access and removing reliance on sponsorship. This creates a meaningful structural advantage over players that depend on intermediaries.

Full briefing: (5 more insights on who is more defensible vs. which one is more likely to get squeezed out of business)

Market Map. See how the market is taking shape and where the major players sit.

Company Landscape. Understand who is building what, how companies overlap, and where they are positioning.

Value Shifts. See where economic value is moving and which parts of the market are becoming more important.

Power & Positioning. Understand who is gaining leverage and who is best positioned to capture the opportunity.

Whitespace: See where new bottlenecks are emerging across the economy—and where they are creating new opportunities.

Competitive Dynamics. See where advantage is forming, who is getting squeezed, and what could make the business more defensible.

What to Watch. Know which developments could confirm, challenge, or change the current view.